The climate crisis might not be as bad as we thought?
an important update from David Wallace-Wells
Exactly five years ago, journalist and author David Wallace-Wells asked us all and the universe generally, “Is it worse, much worse than we think?”
He posed the quandary in the opening line of a New York magazine essay, in which he explored the worse-case scenarios for a warming planet. The essay - The Uninhabitable Earth - shook the world to attention and became the most read article in the magazine’s history as later was refashioned as an internationally best-selling book.
So, half a decade later, is it worse than we thought? Or is it all as expected? Or, um, better? Will the Earth be unliveable? Or not?
I discuss the answer in my latest Wild podcast episode with David, arguably the most prominent climate voices in the world.
The essay/book was responsible for getting a stack of people I know online to the crisis. Although it should be flagged, David was also hauled over coals at the time for throwing the world into panic; until recently the science community has been very cautious about painting grim, albeit factual, pictures less it panic people away from action.
David and I have emailed back and forth a few times over the years. But on this week’s episode I get David on to discuss whether was he right to get us panicking - Is it worse, much worse than we think or thought?
Spoiler alert: It’s not.
Worse, that is.
Hoorah!
But!
Only really sort of…
Up to a decade ago, credible estimates put us on track for average global temperature increases of 4-5C on preindustrial levels by 2100. David posed that 6-7C was very possible.
The prognosis at this temperature? Mass human extinction.
But today, Climate Action Tracker says things are looking more like 2.7 degrees of warming by 2100, even lower (around 2C) if the world sticks to its Paris commitments (which, so far, it’s categorically not).
How did this relatively good news come about?
It’s not because the predictions were wrong, nor that the scientists were being hysterical and the denialists and doubters were right. No, it’s because we did panic. And then we did protest and lobby. And it worked.
The main driver of all this? The cost of clean energy has fallen way faster than anticipated. A whopping 2,900 forecasts predicted the cost of installing solar power would fall 2.6 per cent annually from 2010 to 2020. It actually fell 15 percent per year.
But!
As David explains, life on Earth will be horrible at anything over 1.5C. And bear in mind, in Australia we are already at 1.44C above preindustrial temperatures, the rest of the world is at about 1.2C above, on average. And look how uncomfortable things are becoming!
We’re already seeing it, right?
Air pollution caused by warming is already killing 10 million people every year.
There are tens of millions of heat deaths each year.
Witness the rolling and deadly droughts, floods, fires and famines that are becoming commonplace. I’m in London right now and I honestly don’t know how people here will survive this New Normal.
Starvation is back on the global agenda. For every one degree Celsius increase in average global temperatures is predicted to reduce maize yields by 7.4 percent.
I think what we can take from all this is that there are real grounds for hope here, but not for celebration. It shows us that the fight has not been wasted. And that panic is still appropriate!
I also want to throw in this…
It’s a kind of left-o-field factor, but an important one as we reflect on where the world is at….
The anti-panic crew like to remind us that we’ve never had it so good. In the face of the grim facts they will point out economic and technological advancements. When I talk the need to view the whole bloody mess as an emergency, folk (particularly men) love to quote Steven Pinker at me, cite the uptake of iPhones around the world and regale me with human negativity bias theories.
We can go back and forth on this, comparing crisis with crisis. Weighing up a few thousand lives here, a few million over there.
But it doesn’t get to what British philosopher and chess grandmaster Jonathan Rowson calls the meta-crisis, the deep-rooted societal emergency that underpins all these other individual crises. As he writes in an essay:
The meta-crisis of our time is the inability of current ideologies and governance systems to make sense of these oncoming challenges, and of so many individuals to make sense of their lives, priorities and common cause in the face of the larger paralysis of our cultures.
If I have it right, the bigger issue is that we, and our current systems, can’t cope with making sense of what’s going on. Attempts to fix each crisis are stabs in the dark.
The meta-crisis, is the crisis, Rowson writes, and it reflects our lack of connection to meaning:
More people than ever are enjoying the fruits of economic and technological progress, but our ecological and existential roots are not healthy, cannot repair themselves without our attention, and we may need to grow something entirely new. I believe the ultimate cause of our confusion lies in the societal challenge we have become accustomed to ignoring - the inherent nature, meaning and purpose of it all.
We might be switching to renewables faster than anticipated, but the meta-crisis remains. The ideology and political and economic structures that caused the problem, the panic and the prevailing existential danger in the first place, are faulty. And are unable to assist us in making sense of what the hell is going on.
They continue to erode what matters, even as they try to “fix” each crisis in a piecemeal fashion.
And this is the point. At all turns, we are unable to grasp and comprehend things via the most important lens of all - what matters! And so we think that moving to Mars, transhumanism, bio-engineering and meta-verses are good ideas.
Until we find a way to discuss and solve all these crises through this meaningful lens, I think the situation remains “worse, much worse than you think”.
FYI…this is the new direction I am heading in. Exploring ways that might be able to make sense of it all. My next episode is an interview with someone who is on the same path…
Sarah xx
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The climate crisis might not be as bad as we thought?
Thanks for the update, Sarah and David! I actually cried with relief this morning upon reading some positive news about the state of our planet. Of course, we'll keep pushing and making changes, but it's SO incredibly wonderful to hear that the efforts so many have been making are starting to have an impact. Keep up the great work everyone. Thank you for everything you've done and continue to do, and thank you Sarah for keeping us all up to date and informed on the issues mainstream media sometimes avoid.
Thanks. Sarah, for helping us understand all this a little better. It astounds me how you manage to keep abreast of it as I found it all a bit overwhelming. On a day when Melbourne woke to '0' while our Brit and Euro friends swelter under 40 degrees, it's so apparent we have big issues before considering all the other stats you provide.
I must read more of Rowson's work about the meta-crisis - I'll check out that essay.
Thanks again. Be safe, Be well. xx